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How We Do Business
SportsBetTech.com utilizes a proprietary handicapping process (software enhanced) that essentially handicaps the handicapper. Make no mistake about it. One of the many critical components of successful handicapping is the accumulation of critical real time relevant information on a respective game. However, without a general understanding of the athletes for the sport, such as player psychology over the course of a season, a handicapper will continue to operate at too much of a disadvantage. All handicappers will possess a stronger "feel" for one or several teams over the balance of a particular league, and one or two sports generally better than other gaming sports (e.g., NFL and NCAA Hoops better than NHL & NBA).
At SportsBetTech, we analyze the "lined-games" for all the sports/leagues that we support. While adhering to a "strict cash management process" is the absolute starting point for any PROFIT ORIENTED sports handicapper, "a majority of all plays must be successful!." Consequently, barring an unusual situational event for a particular game (e.g., weather, last second sickness or injury, ineligible player, etc.), SportsBetTech believes that all plays should be given equal weight. Following is the foundation for our argument:
- Aside from the "unusual situational games" that occur infrequently (spread among all of the gaming sports), the balance of the sport schedules will only play out based on general handicapping principles and discipline.
- Those handicappers who give out rated plays are potentially playing with fire... and their client's money. If a play is merely a statistical and or trend analysis recommendation, why would the confidence of one such game date match up be any more or less confident than another... enough to play all such recommendations but for varying weighted sums:
- Under a weighted wager system, a winning percentage on game date results could still produce capital losses for that day, resulting in lost opportunity;
- Under a weighted wager system, a win on a heavier weighted play, despite losses on higher quantity lesser weighted plays, merely, and certainly potentially, sets up the player for "bankroll washout" on the day when such heavier weighted plays do not come in... days that are inevitable in this business;
What is an example of an "unusual situational event" game?
In the '08-'09 NFL Season, there was a game played in the 17th week of regulation in Buffalo between the Bills and the Patriots Patriots. At the beginning of the week the opening Total was 43. Early in the morning on the Sunday game date, the weather man reported that there would be very strong winds in Buffalo... upwards towards 40-50 mph (or more). The line was adjusted immediately upon the Sportsbooks opening for business. SportsBetTech knew that the Patriots very potent passing game would be rendered effectively useless. The statistics also showed... sans the weather report... that the Bills had little passing game going into that game, and even less incentive to play knowing they had no shot at the playoffs. SportsBetTech was able to buy the game heavy on the UNDER at 35.5. It closed at 34. The final score: NE:13 BB: 0. The weather made the game "situational." The fact that the oddsmaker could not adjust the line enough to compensate for the "situational event" made the game quite unusual.
Unless one of the teams had a "superior" running game, the two teams playing in that game were not very relevant. The weather dictated that the game "could only be played on the ground" and that neither team would score much, if at all. Such events occur 2-5 times a year. When we find such games (events), we will advise our PREMIUM Subscribers about the opportunity by e-mail and/or text message, so that they can take advantage of this situation. This is part of our professional commitment of excellence to each Subscriber.
Generally, during the regular season, the oddsmakers' lines will be much tighter, or more closely resemble the match up between the teams in marquee games. However, often non-marquee games, or games between one marquee team and one non-marquee team, oddsmakers will offer lines that are simply not justified by the statistical match-ups.
In such statistical anomaly match-ups, the oddsmakers will set the lines much closer to "public perception" rather than the more accurate statistical relationship between the teams. This is why many very mediocre pitchers today, playing on teams barely above or below a .500 record, are being assessed favored money lines from -150 to -200 (or more). The lines for these games could easily be argued to be even picks! (Note: For over valued chalk games, the Dog would be labeled a "value play" by SportsBetTech...ideal for light action or as part of a 3 Team Round Robin play). The oddsmakers have likely has participated in the setting of over-valued lines in MLB action to give them a greater edge over the player on two principals:
- Greater juice requires a greater winning percentage for the player to merely break even over the course of time.
- The higher juice games lower the "Run Line" favorable odds, thus creating lower payouts to the player and giving the "house" further insurance. Now the chalk team now has to win by two or more runs...not just one;
In conclusion, finding "value" plays not only requires knowledge of the statistical match-ups between the teams, but also a relational analysis of the money lines and spreads that identify each game date match up. It is simply impossible for a non-professional player to dedicate the time and resources to successfully achieve this goal.
Conclusion
SportsBetTech management has seen a myriad of changes in the sports investment arena over the last 25+ years, and the Internet represents an invaluable tool to support those changes. However, the amount of data that has to be analyzed to find value in ever-tightening oddsmakers' linees continues to grow. There is no magic window to forecasting future events (e.g., predicting outcomes). SportsBetTech has removed emotion from the analysis and prejudice from its recommendations. We grade ourselves constantly on our accuracy (Winners and Losers), and post all of our results SportsBetTech Picks Archive. Furthermore, we ask ourselves the following four questions every day:
- Did our wins come in as analyzed or did we merely catch a lucky break?
- Did we lose a game in "bad beat" fashion (which all players must live with as acceptable, because you will win games that way as well) or was the call completely wrong (e.g., learn from adversity)?
- Did we take advantage of critical last minute data that was available?
- Did we miss a game date match-up that had value written all over it?